Signal Feed
Insider
2026-04-05T11:52
Claude 5 is going to be released very soon, I've seen early benchmarks and it's incredible
HALF YES
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Conv: 66
View tweet
Insider
2026-04-05T11:52
Claude 5 is going to be released very soon, I've seen early benchmarks and it's incredible
HALF YES
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
Conv: 66
View tweet
Insider
2026-04-05T11:52
Claude 5 is going to be released very soon, I've seen early benchmarks and it's incredible
HALF YES
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Conv: 66
View tweet
Open Positions
| Dir | Contract | Entry | Current | Size | P&L | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | $0.1550 | $0.1550 | $25 | $+0.00 (+0.0%) | 66 |
| YES | Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | $0.2250 | $0.2250 | $25 | $+0.00 (+0.0%) | 66 |
| YES | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | $0.5150 | $0.5150 | $25 | $+0.00 (+0.0%) | 66 |
Portfolio & Markets
Total Value
$75.00
Record
0W 3L
Signals Today
3
Contracts Tracked
187
Active AI/Tech Markets
Will Trump visit China by...?
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
YES=1%
Vol=$7,883,484
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
YES=63%
Vol=$1,054,943
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
YES=76%
Vol=$577,799
AI bubble burst by...?
AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?
YES=16%
Vol=$1,953,170
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
YES=12%
Vol=$1,893,530
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
YES=41%
Vol=$1,140,565
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
YES=12%
Vol=$626,499
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
YES=14%
Vol=$1,525,125
USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?
YES=18%
Vol=$1,212,282
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?
YES=3%
Vol=$387,370
USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?
YES=0%
Vol=$197,950
MegaETH airdrop by...?
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?
YES=41%
Vol=$1,018,319
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
YES=5%
Vol=$992,732
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES=2%
Vol=$861,590
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES=66%
Vol=$579,244
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES=22%
Vol=$320,357
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
YES=14%
Vol=$570,858
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market cl
YES=9%
Vol=$487,766
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
YES=66%
Vol=$273,871
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IP
YES=4%
Vol=$257,630
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
YES=14%
Vol=$445,110
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?
YES=10%
Vol=$417,538
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?
YES=5%
Vol=$53,733
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?
YES=1%
Vol=$41,509
OpenAI IPO by...?
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
YES=36%
Vol=$409,870
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
YES=6%
Vol=$223,775
Claude 5 released by…?
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
YES=16%
Vol=$368,603
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
YES=22%
Vol=$23,666
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
YES=52%
Vol=$5,229
India strike on Pakistan by...?
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
YES=29%
Vol=$269,502
Which company has second best AI model end of June?
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 20
YES=9%
Vol=$245,398
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026
YES=6%
Vol=$31,273
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 202
YES=0%
Vol=$30,748
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
YES=23%
Vol=$243,936
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close o
YES=1%
Vol=$233,085
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on
YES=0%
Vol=$191,659
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?
YES=97%
Vol=$162,656
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
YES=7%
Vol=$228,353
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
YES=14%
Vol=$24,921
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
YES=14%
Vol=$224,789
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES=1%
Vol=$204,329
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES=1%
Vol=$196,554
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES=3%
Vol=$174,882
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
YES=26%
Vol=$189,648
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
YES=7%
Vol=$102,617
Pump.fun airdrop by ....?
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026
YES=22%
Vol=$102,482
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
YES=17%
Vol=$92,520
GPT-6 released by…?
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
YES=31%
Vol=$82,309
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
YES=82%
Vol=$30,664
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
YES=71%
Vol=$1,017
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
YES=12%
Vol=$78,584
Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?
YES=34%
Vol=$78,319
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
YES=43%
Vol=$72,625
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
YES=8%
Vol=$72,200
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?
YES=6%
Vol=$65,388
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
YES=17%
Vol=$4,560
Will USD.AI launch a token by ___ ?
Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30?
YES=95%
Vol=$64,567
Will USD.AI launch a token by December 31, 2026?
YES=98%
Vol=$221
US x Russia military clash by...?
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
YES=3%
Vol=$55,584
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
YES=10%
Vol=$7,064
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
YES=24%
Vol=$50,238
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?
YES=93%
Vol=$49,206
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?
YES=48%
Vol=$28,587
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?
YES=82%
Vol=$9,157
Russian strike on Poland by...?
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
YES=5%
Vol=$40,514
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
YES=24%
Vol=$37,869
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?
YES=19%
Vol=$31,815
Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30?
YES=9%
Vol=$26,275
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
YES=18%
Vol=$27,288
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31
YES=44%
Vol=$25,879
Grok 5 released by...?
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?
YES=17%
Vol=$22,022
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by...?
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30?
YES=6%
Vol=$21,330
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
YES=21%
Vol=$10,735
Anthropic acquired before 2027?
Anthropic acquired before 2027?
YES=11%
Vol=$9,705
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
YES=10%
Vol=$9,594
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
YES=82%
Vol=$3,741
Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?
Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?
YES=6%
Vol=$3,675
New Half-Life game by...?
New Half-Life game by June 30?
YES=30%
Vol=$3,587
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?
YES=8%
Vol=$3,161
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard ch
YES=58%
Vol=$2,840
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?
YES=10%
Vol=$2,110
Israel military action against Damascus by...?
Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?
YES=40%
Vol=$1,874